TheChemist
Catalyst Φ ideas 1.08
Portfolio Φ money 0.97
Win rate 66.7%
Posts 3
Joined Apr 2026
Random person on the internet
Title
Random person on the internet
Relevant experience

I had to buy ram recently T.T

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Performance
Posted May 03, 2026
Days held 6
Stock Performance
000660.KS↗ +16.52%
Posted: ₩1447000 → Now: ₩1686000
005930.KS↗ +15.48%
Posted: ₩232500 → Now: ₩268500
MU↗ +29.55%
Posted: $576.45 → Now: $746.81
Basket Performance +19.07%
Posted: $592087.58 → Now: $688866.77
S&P 500 +2.75%
Posted: $7200.75 → Now: $7398.93
Φ since posted 1.16
Propagations 0
Upvotes 2

Ram supply shock and demand increase skyrocket prices

2

Ai demand increase along with large contracts with hyperscale's squeeze ram supply.

Positive Pressures
AI Driven Demand
Demand Increase Companies adopting ai at an alarming rate. Every ai workload requires more ram, every model upgrade requires more ram per chip. Macro Trend Hyperscalers keep expanding capex. Demand floor keeps rising with no ceiling in sight.
Strength 0.60
Confidence 0.65
Supply Decrease
Supply Decrease Because the contracts bought 70% of the supply, only 30% will hit the market, causing prices to increase. Contract Hyperscalers buy ram faster than factories can produce. Companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon signed long term contracts with the 3 ram producers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) to buy 70% of the supply before its even produced.
Strength 0.85
Confidence 0.99
Supply Discipline
Supply Decrease New fabs take 2-3 years minimum to build, cleanrooms are physically rate limited. The 3 suppliers are signaling discipline over volume, opposite of past cycles where they overbuilt and crashed prices themselves. Regulatory Slowdown Government buildout of US based ram factories delayed from 2028 to 2030.
Strength 0.50
Confidence 0.75
Affected Stocks
005930.KS↗ IBKR
0.43 finance
000660.KS↗ IBKR
0.34 defense
MU↗ Alpaca
0.23 tech

0 propagations

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Thesis
Ok so three companies make basically all the DRAM. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron (tickers 005930.KS, 000660.KS, MU). that's 95% of global supply. Hyperscale's signed long term contracts with all three and locked up 100% of HBM through 2026 with forward orders running into 2028. data centers eat ~70% of all memory produced globally in 2026 per IDC. Hyperscale's ate 50% price hikes and are still only getting 70% of what they ordered. There is no supply relief coming. fabs take 2-3 years to build, Micron's NY Megafab slipped from 2028 to late 2030, cleanrooms can't be rushed. and the three suppliers are signaling discipline not volume which is the opposite of every past cycle where they overproduced and crashed the price.
AI Sentiment
Score: 0.88

The thesis identifies a significant supply decrease in DRAM due to long-term contracts signed by hyperscalers and limited production capacity. News supports the thesis as global cloud expansion and new AI applications boost demand, while the construction timeline for new fabs indicates constrained supply. The basket has outperformed since submission with a of 1.16x, indicating positive momentum aligning with the user's claims. Author's edge from recent RAM purchase experience lends credibility to the thesis, though no cited sources provide deeper industry insights. Synthesizing, the supply shock and demand increase are likely to sustain pricing power for DRAM producers.

Scored May 08, 2026
AI Pressure Review
Positive
AI Driven Demand conf 0.90 0.90
Supply Decrease conf 0.50 0.90
Supply Discipline conf 0.90 0.90
Red Team

Title: Ram supply shock and demand increase skyrocket prices Summary: AI demand increase along with large contracts with hyperscalers squeezes RAM supply.

Invalidator Scenarios
Hyperscalers reduce spending
Impact0.42
Risk0.31
Fireplace →
Green Team

The thesis asserts that the demand for DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) is increasing due to AI applications and long-term contracts signed by hyperscalers with major suppliers.

Boom Scenarios
Global cloud expansion surge
Impact0.67
Likelihood0.58
Emergence of new ai applications
Impact0.42
Likelihood0.31
Echo Chamber →

AI Live News