Macro

Charter Communications (CHTR) has seen its stock fall 66.7% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 23.4% gain, due to intense broadband competition and declining pay-TV customers. The stock, trading below key moving averages, also lags behind rival Comcast, despite a 'Hold' consensus and a 93.6% upside potential based on analyst targets.

On July 31, the Munich Regional Court ruled against AI music generator Suno in a copyright lawsuit brought by German collecting society GEMA. The court found Suno used copyrighted music to train its AI without a license, ordering it to disclose revenue and pay damages (amount pending). GEMA filed the suit in January 2025, alleging Suno's tool generated audio misleadingly similar to songs like Forever Young. Suno, which denies reproducing existing works, plans to appeal. The first-instance ruling follows GEMA's November 2025 win against OpenAI over song lyrics. Suno faces additional copyright claims from the RIAA and Denmark's Koda, while having settled with Warner Music Group.

Corning has outperformed Nvidia with a 129% stock return over the past year, driven by surging demand for its fiber-optic cables in AI data centers. The company's optical communications revenue grew 32% year over year to $2.1 billion in Q2 2026, with AI-related sales nearly doubling. Key deals include a $6 billion agreement with Meta and a similar pact with Amazon. Corning's new Multicore Fiber technology reduces cable needs by 75% for large GPU clusters. The company aims for $20 billion in annual revenue by 2026 and $40 billion by 2030, though its stock trades at a P/E of 44.5, with Wall Street projecting earnings growth to $4.28 per share by 2027.

T-Mobile US shares lagged in the second quarter of 2026, falling 24.39% over the prior 52 weeks, as investors grew concerned about a competitor building its own terrestrial mobile network. Advances in low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite technology, combined with complementary terrestrial technologies, could enable lower-cost mobile connectivity, threatening T-Mobile's competitive position. The Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund highlighted these competitive pressures in its Q2 2026 investor letter, noting that T-Mobile's stock closed at $177.21 on July 27, 2026, with a market cap of roughly $190 billion. The broader S&P 500 gained 15.2% in the quarter, driven by a sharp AI-related rally concentrated in semiconductor stocks.

Amazon has filed an FCC application to deploy 5,105 low Earth orbit satellites for a direct-to-device (D2D) telecom service, with launches beginning in early 2028. The constellation, nearly double the size of Amazon's initial Leo broadband network, will operate in five orbital shells at altitudes of 510–580 km, using Globalstar's spectrum for L-band and S-band mobile links and Ka/V-band for ground connections, with onboard processing and laser inter-satellite links. The system aims to provide voice, messaging, data, and emergency services globally, complementing Amazon's existing broadband network, and will target connectivity-starved areas, disaster response, fleet management, remote operations, IoT, and emergency messaging. Amazon's April acquisition of Globalstar for $11.6 billion secures the spectrum used for emergency connectivity on Apple iPhones and IoT devices, and the company plans to partner with mobile network operators and collaborate with Apple on future services. The FCC application also requests use of Iridium's spectrum outside the US, even as Rocket Lab acquires Iridium with expansion plans. Amazon has partnerships with Vodafone, DirecTV, Herotel, and Australia's NBN. The new D2D constellation intensifies competition with SpaceX's Starlink, which has a similar T-Mobile partnership and nearly 11,000 active satellites, as well as with AST SpaceMobile and Lynk Global. SpaceX plans to spend $20 billion buying spectrum from EchoStar for its mobile constellation, a key growth strategy in its IPO filings. However, satellite-to-mobile service value remains uncertain; T-Mobile's CEO reported that in May satellite usage was only 0.0002% of total network usage, mostly in national parks. Amazon's massive capital reserves—$255 billion in current assets—allow it to keep investing, while SpaceX's capital needs appear more pressing. The satellite industry faces limited rocket launch availability, a constraint that could slow deployment of next-generation constellations. Amazon's initial Leo broadband network has launched over 390 satellites out of over 3,000 originally planned, with service expected by year-end, but has faced launch delays including a Blue Origin rocket explosion and a May anomaly that destroyed a launch pad, forcing Amazon to request an FCC extension, which was granted in June on a roughly 1,600-satellite deadline falling this month. Cost estimates for the new D2D constellation range from $13 billion to $20 billion, assuming a design broadly in line with peers and launches handled largely by Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos's rocket company.

YouTube Premium subscribers in the U.S. will now receive Peacock Premium (ad-supported) at no extra cost, with an option to upgrade to ad-free Peacock Premium Plus. The expanded partnership between NBCUniversal and YouTube, announced in early 2027, also includes Peacock as a separate add-on via YouTube Primetime Channels later this summer (Peacock Premium Plus has been available there since June 2026), extends NBCU's distribution deal with YouTube TV (last renewed October 2025), and brings Universal+ and Hayu internationally through YouTube Premium in select markets. NBC Sports will produce and stream select live events on its YouTube channel, with some available for free. The deal deepens ad tech collaboration via FreeWheel and extends YouTube services on Comcast's Xfinity and Xumo platforms. YouTube Premium's price remains $15.99/month for individuals and $26.99 for families after a June 2026 increase, while Peacock Premium normally costs $10.99/month or $110/year. Peacock, which turned its first quarterly profit in Q2 2026, had 48 million subscribers as of June, while YouTube Premium and YouTube Music have a combined 125 million global subscribers (individual service counts not disclosed). The agreement is Peacock's largest wholesale distribution deal and comes ahead of NBCUniversal's planned spin-off from Comcast, expected in mid-2027, with Comcast co-CEO Mike Cavanagh set to lead the standalone company. The bundle includes live sports from the NFL, NBA, and MLB, as well as entertainment like Law & Order, Saturday Night Live, and Love Island. YouTube CEO Neal Mohan said the partnership redefines what a modern entertainment subscription can be, while Cavanagh highlighted the strategy of partnering with industry leaders to drive sustained growth. The deal signals a new phase in the streaming wars focused on aggregation, as NBCU allows Peacock content to appear on other platforms—a strategy it previously tested with Apple TV in late 2024, though that required an opt-in at a higher cost. NBCU executives felt YouTube offered the right deal economics to avoid cannibalizing Peacock's subscriber base, according to people familiar with the matter. The move targets YouTube's large, younger audience, potentially boosting advertising revenue for NBCU. Meanwhile, ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro expressed interest in similar wholesale deals, and both Netflix and Disney are reportedly considering such arrangements, though NBCU has not been satisfied with offers from them due to concerns over subscriber overlap and deal terms. The aggregation trend could reshape the industry, with Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery potentially joining the aggregator camp if their merger proceeds, while Fox's acquisition of Roku positions it on either side of the equation. This expansion makes YouTube Premium a more compelling alternative to Netflix, which has faced frequent price hikes and relies heavily on its own shows and licensed content, while YouTube already offers 20 million videos uploaded daily and now adds a top streaming service like Peacock. Alphabet's deep pockets and highly profitable business position it to compete aggressively in entertainment, potentially making it a safer long-term growth stock for investors.

The U.K. has cleared Paramount Skydance's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. on both competition and public interest grounds, with the Competition and Markets Authority finding no concerns in areas like theatrical film distribution, children's TV, and subscription VOD services. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy declined to issue a Public Interest Intervention Notice after securing legally-binding commitments from Paramount to protect media diversity and editorial independence. Paramount assured that Channel 5 will maintain its public service broadcaster status and increase U.K. funding for news, children's programming, and drama; children's channels like Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network will remain editorially distinct and continue commissioning original U.K. content; and Channel 5 News will retain editorial independence from CBS News and CNN International, with CNN International remaining available in the U.K. Paramount framed the approval as undermining the antitrust case brought by California and 11 other state attorneys general, calling their market definitions 'misguided and gerrymandered.'

Google began phasing out Google Assistant on September 4, replacing it with Gemini AI on Android phones, tablets, Wear OS watches, headphones, earbuds, and Android Auto, with the transition rolling out over several weeks. Once complete, users on affected devices cannot revert to Assistant. The move, first announced in March 2025, consolidates Google's assistant experience around Gemini, which reached 950 million monthly active users in Q2 fiscal 2026, with daily active users tripling year-over-year, according to CEO Sundar Pichai. Gemini offers conversational, multimodal capabilities for complex tasks, while Google has worked to ensure familiar Assistant functions like timers, music, and smart-home controls remain. Vehicles with Google built-in, Google Home, and Google TV retain Assistant for now, with Gemini expansion planned. The shift also impacts advertising, as brands must optimize for autonomous AI agents handling transactions and real-time content, potentially reducing ad impressions and publisher traffic. Google continues developing new models, including Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, testing 3.5 Pro, and pre-training Gemini 4, with the web app available in over 70 languages and 230 countries.

SpaceX, led by President Gwynne Shotwell and CEO Elon Musk, is planning a major push into the U.S. consumer wireless market, targeting a $300 billion annual industry. During its first earnings call since its June IPO, the company announced a hybrid network combining next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites launching in 2027 with low-cost terrestrial small cells, including femtocells integrated with Starlink dishes, using 65 MHz of EchoStar mid-band spectrum—acquired for $19.6 billion in 2025 and approved by the FCC in May. Shotwell said the service would be "100 times better" than current Starlink Direct-to-Cell, which primarily serves as a satellite safety net for carriers—T-Mobile, a current partner, reported such service accounted for only 0.0003% of network usage during peak summer. SpaceX is also reportedly in partnership discussions with Charter Communications to accelerate rollout via broadband locations and Wi-Fi offload. However, analysts caution that disrupting telecom is harder than spaceflight: satellites have limited capacity in dense urban areas, indoor coverage remains a challenge, and the U.S. wireless market is sticky, with major carriers losing only about 1% of postpaid subscribers monthly. Without an MVNO agreement with a major carrier, it would be extremely difficult for Starlink to compete, as 65 MHz is tiny compared to the spectrum owned by the big U.S. mobile operators, and they're unlikely to lease capacity to a competitor. Building a nationwide carrier requires reliable service, billing, customer support, and retail distribution—capabilities far from SpaceX's core rocket and satellite expertise. The move intensifies competition for AT&T and Verizon; Verizon trades at $46.88, about 10% below a consensus target of $51.56, while AT&T's stock has been volatile, recently at $23.38 versus an estimated fair value of $29.03. Following the earnings call, shares of AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon fell 2 to 4 percent. Shotwell declined to disclose capital costs. SpaceX's stock has fallen 30% since its IPO, and the company's valuation increasingly reflects speculative markets not yet realized. In early August 2026, AT&T expanded its network capabilities with a new neutral-host distributed antenna system at Mississippi State University's Davis Wade Stadium, launched the 5G-enabled AT&T amiGO Jr. Tab 2, completed $1.10 billion and €1.20 billion floating-rate bond offerings, and was named in a U.S. Department of Labor ERISA exemption amendment. These moves came as Starlink's direct-to-cellular plans sharpened investor focus on how AT&T's fiber-and-5G-centered investment thesis—projecting $136.1 billion revenue and $18.3 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 2.5% yearly revenue growth and a $3.0 billion earnings decrease from $21.3 billion today—holds up against emerging satellite-enabled competition. Some optimistic analysts penciled in about $139 billion revenue and $18.7 billion earnings by 2029, which could look more or less achievable once Starlink's push and AT&T's response are fully reflected.

Reddit is gaining ground on Meta and Snap in digital advertising, driven by strong financial and user growth. In Q2 2026, Reddit posted its eighth consecutive quarter of over 60% revenue growth, with ad revenues up 64% year over year to $762 million. The platform now reaches over 0.5 billion weekly users and more than 130 million daily users. Key to its success is Reddit Max, an AI-driven ad automation suite whose usage grew over 60% from Q1 and revenues from Max campaigns increased more than 150%. Scaled channel revenues doubled year over year, and active advertisers grew over 70%. For Q3 2026, Reddit expects revenues between $860 million and $870 million, representing 47% to 49% year-over-year growth.

Paramount Skydance's roughly $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery remains frozen after a coalition of 12 states led by California and the Writers Guild of America sued to block it on antitrust grounds. The companies agreed not to close until five days after a trial verdict or June 1, 2027, whichever comes first. Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín has signaled doubts about the deal's legality, citing market share thresholds. Paramount owes Warner Bros. shareholders a $650 million quarterly ticking fee starting September 30, and a $7 billion breakup fee if the deal collapses. Paramount has cleared 65 jurisdictions including the DOJ and EU, hired litigator Beth Wilkinson, and projects $6 billion in annual savings, but its stock is down 37% and legal fees exceed $160 million.