Macro

Allstate, Chubb, and Travelers led S&P 500 losses as LA wildfire damage escalated, with insured losses potentially exceeding $20 billion. JPMorgan highlighted Chubb's elevated risk due to its concentration in high-net-worth properties in affected areas. Reinsurers Arch Capital and RenaissanceRe also fell, amid growing concerns over reinsurance attachment breaches.

Financial stocks overall are modestly higher this month despite a pullback in insurance names, as the broader sector sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings from major banks and stable credit markets. The insurance subsector underperformed due to revised loss estimates from ongoing California wildfires, weighing on property and casualty insurers. However, diversified financials and asset managers helped lift the sector average, supported by resilient consumer lending and healthy capital markets activity.

Trump's tariff escalation raised construction and material costs and kept inflation and rates elevated, leaving housing sluggish and office CRE still distressed though bottoming in some markets; a grinding, modestly negative year for owners.

A hostile policy year: RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary rattled vaccine makers and FDA credibility, Trump's most-favored-nation order threatened to slash US drug prices to foreign levels, tariff threats loomed, and UnitedHealth crashed on a DOJ probe and guidance cuts. Broad…

Nvidia's stock dropped 17% after Chinese AI firm DeepSeek unveiled a low-cost large-language model, undermining confidence in U.S. AI dominance and Nvidia's high-margin GPU demand. The $589 billion market cap loss marked a record single-day decline, impacting tech peers and raising concerns over future AI spending and Nvidia's growth thesis.

The tech sector this month reflects a volatile but ultimately optimistic tilt, driven by a massive $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative spearheaded by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle under the Stargate banner, which overshadowed earlier losses in market valuation. Nvidia’s combined $1.189 trillion in market cap erosion—triggered by DeepSeek’s AI cost breakthrough and broader profit-taking—sparked investor concern, signaling overdependence on chip gains. Yet the scale and specificity of the Stargate commitment restored confidence, anchoring sentiment in tangible, large-scale investment rather than speculative momentum.

Trump's sweeping April tariffs (10% plus reciprocal, China to 125%) raised import costs and hammered retailer and auto margins; the May US-China truce gave partial relief, but the tariff drag and September EV-credit repeal weighed all year…

Trump's tariff escalation was double-edged — protecting domestic producers but shocking supply chains and inviting retaliation (April 'Liberation Day' plunge) — yet accelerating reshoring and a roaring data-center power/electrical-equipment cycle drove strong order books…

Trump signs executive orders to speed nuclear power, bullish for generation

DeepSeek AI shock rattles AI-adjacent names briefly

DeepSeek shock, AI power-demand fears, power stocks plunge

Gold topped $4,000 for the first time on the debasement trade, silver and precious metals surged, and China's sweeping rare-earth export controls handed pricing leverage to Western critical-minerals producers, a euphoric year for hard-asset owners.

European rearmament (the EU 'ReArm Europe' plan), the June NATO 5% spending target, and the June Israel-Iran war with US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites drove euphoric demand; China's rare-earth export curbs added an input-supply risk but demand overwhelmed it.