Macro
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A hostile policy year: RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary rattled vaccine makers and FDA credibility, Trump's most-favored-nation order threatened to slash US drug prices to foreign levels, tariff threats loomed, and UnitedHealth crashed on a DOJ probe and guidance cuts. Broad…
Some stabilization; office CRE bottoming in select markets
A turbulent year, Trump's tariff escalation (the April 'Liberation Day' crash), threats to Fed independence (firing attempts at Cook and the BLS chief), and a crypto plunge from its peak whipsawed markets, while LA wildfires slammed insurers.
In the first half of 2025, solar and storage accounted for 82% of new U.S. power capacity, with 18 GW of solar installed, despite federal policies dampening investment. The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie warn that anti-clean energy measures could reduce solar deployment by up to 21% by 2030, threatening grid reliability and economic competitiveness. Market demand and state-level growth, especially in red states, continue to drive the sector, but federal permitting and policy headwinds risk stalling manufacturing and private investment.
The energy sector is feeling mildly bullish this month, supported by Nvidia’s announcement of up to $100 billion in planned investment in OpenAI as part of a broader data center expansion. This signals rising long-term demand for power-intensive infrastructure, reinforcing expectations for sustained growth in electricity consumption and supporting higher valuations across power and grid-exposed assets. While not a direct energy-sector event, the scale of investment underscores tightening links between tech infrastructure and energy demand fundamentals.
Electrification and factory buildout drive strong order books
Meta and Alphabet AI-ad strength kept owners positive, interrupted by the January DeepSeek shock and April's Trump tariff selloff that raised hardware-cost and recession fears. Positive with a spring dip.
The late-January DeepSeek shock briefly crashed our AI-power trade on fears demand was overstated, but the data-center buildout and nuclear and gas-turbine supercycle reasserted themselves, keeping owner sentiment strong through tariff-driven volatility.
The mega-deal tied the AI ecosystem's key supplier to its flagship customer, lifting Nvidia to records. Analysts flagged circular-financing concerns among AI giants even as the announcement extended the infrastructure rally.
The tech sector is sharply positive this month, driven primarily by Nvidia's commitment to invest up to $100 billion in support of OpenAI's 10-gigawatt AI infrastructure buildout. This unprecedented capital infusion into AI-scale computing capacity signals a major acceleration in long-term AI deployment and underwrites continued demand for high-end semiconductors and data center infrastructure. Broader market optimism is reinforced by sustained private-sector conviction in AI's commercial trajectory, with Nvidia's move acting as a sector-wide catalyst.
European rearmament (the EU 'ReArm Europe' plan), the June NATO 5% spending target, and the June Israel-Iran war with US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites drove euphoric demand; China's rare-earth export curbs added an input-supply risk but demand overwhelmed it.
Gold topped $4,000 for the first time on the debasement trade, silver and precious metals surged, and China's sweeping rare-earth export controls handed pricing leverage to Western critical-minerals producers, a euphoric year for hard-asset owners.