Macro

The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, despite May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to a three-year high of 4.2%. Futures markets predict the rate will reach 4% by year-end with no anticipated cuts, setting up the July FOMC meeting as a critical next test.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil and gas, draining consumer discretionary budgets, while rising mortgage delinquencies signaled housing-affordability stress and major retail-store closures (footwear chain shutting 82 stores) confirmed weakening low-end demand.

The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, despite May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to a three-year high of 4.2%. Futures markets predict the rate will reach 4% by year-end with no anticipated cuts, setting up the July FOMC meeting as a critical next test.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil soaring, reigniting inflation and keeping mortgage and cap rates high; the energy-driven rate pressure hit the leveraged property owner even as real assets offered a partial inflation hedge.

Carryover policy pressure; healthcare still lags Nasdaq/AI

The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, despite May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to a three-year high of 4.2%. Futures markets predict the rate will reach 4% by year-end with no anticipated cuts, setting up the July FOMC meeting as a critical next test.

An oil shock from Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz revived inflation and rate-hike fears, and an AI-stock tumble delivered the market's worst day of the year, pressuring asset managers and brokers. Rising rate-hike odds were a mixed blessing for bank NIM;

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil soaring mid-year, spiking fuel and input costs and hitting transports, but the structural reshoring/electrification buildout, strong defense demand and aerospace optimism (SpaceX's record IPO) restored momentum by year-end.

Streaming and digital ad stable but linear cable erodes; Charter underperforms S&P

Meta has signed agreements with Oklo, Vistra, and TerraPower to secure up to 6.6 GW of nuclear power by 2035 to support its growing data center electricity demand, particularly for AI infrastructure like the Prometheus supercluster. The deals, focused on the PJM region, include long-term power purchases and development funding, signaling strong tech-sector demand for clean, baseload power and potentially reshaping nuclear energy's role in supporting large-scale AI operations.

The energy sector is sharply positive this month, driven by unprecedented corporate demand for nuclear power as a baseload source to support data center growth. Meta’s 6.6 GW of nuclear power purchase agreements with Oklo, Vistra, and TerraPower underscores a broader shift toward long-term, off-taker-backed contracts that de-risk project financing and accelerate deployment timelines. This corporate-led demand signal is reshaping market expectations for near-term nuclear capacity growth.

The data-center load growth and grid capex supercycle sustained buoyant owner sentiment, tempered mid-year when Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil and stoked fuel-cost and inflation worries, partly offset by the high power prices our generators captured.

'AI supercycle' melt-up; AI demand fuels memory-chip shortage (windfall for chipmakers)

Gold holds near record highs from the 2025 debasement rally

Sustained euphoria with a US defense budget near $1 trillion, Europe ramping toward NATO's 5% target, and a mid-year Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis and oil spike (per the ledger) driving further military escalation and demand.