Macro

Late-stage mortgage delinquencies rose 18.6% year-on-year in December, driven by persistent housing affordability challenges, according to VantageScore. With $13.07 trillion in outstanding mortgages and rising costs, delinquency rates are increasing faster than other consumer credit types, signaling stress among homeowners. The trend may pressure credit scores and lending risk, highlighting broader market vulnerability despite still-low overall delinquency levels compared to the 2008 crisis.

Consumer sector sentiment is slightly bearish this month, weighed down by rising mortgage delinquencies reflecting broader housing affordability pressures. While housing remains a key component of household wealth, the uptick in missed payments signals tightening financial conditions for middle- and lower-income households, constraining discretionary spending capacity. This dynamic overshadows any marginal resilience suggested by stable home prices or consumer confidence readings.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil soaring, reigniting inflation and keeping mortgage and cap rates high; the energy-driven rate pressure hit the leveraged property owner even as real assets offered a partial inflation hedge.

I entered the year still under policy pressure (MFN pricing implementation, tariffs, FDA/RFK uncertainty) and washed-out managed-care and biotech valuations, but as the mid-year Strait-of-Hormuz oil shock drove markets risk-off…

An oil shock from Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz revived inflation and rate-hike fears, and an AI-stock tumble delivered the market's worst day of the year, pressuring asset managers and brokers. Rising rate-hike odds were a mixed blessing for bank NIM;

Oil prices surged in early July 2026 despite reaching four-month lows, influenced by geopolitical tensions including Iran's leader assassination and tanker attacks. OPEC+ approved an additional quota increase of 188,000 bpd, helping to stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and mitigate price hikes.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil soaring mid-year, spiking fuel and input costs and hitting transports, but the structural reshoring/electrification buildout, strong defense demand and aerospace optimism (SpaceX's record IPO) restored momentum by year-end.

Digital-ad giants stayed resilient while linear cable eroded (Charter underperforming the S&P), but Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring oil stoked inflation and consumer strain mid-year, pressuring ad demand. Neutral, dipping on the oil shock.

The data-center load growth and grid capex supercycle sustained buoyant owner sentiment, tempered mid-year when Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil and stoked fuel-cost and inflation worries, partly offset by the high power prices our generators captured.

An 'AI supercycle' melt-up with an AI-driven memory-chip shortage that is a pricing windfall for chipmakers; China's gallium curbs and a Strait-of-Hormuz oil shock are frictions but AI demand keeps a tech owner near-euphoric.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil and commodity prices elevated and inflationary, sustaining strong revenue and lofty gold prices for materials owners, though 2025's mania plateaued into a high but steadier range.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February 2026 escalated into a shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supplies. A June truce memorandum aimed to facilitate talks but was undermined by tanker attacks and renewed US military action in early July.

European NATO 5% procurement contracts flow into the primes

Oil prices surged in early July 2026 despite reaching four-month lows, influenced by geopolitical tensions including Iran's leader assassination and tanker attacks. OPEC+ approved an additional quota increase of 188,000 bpd, helping to stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and mitigate price hikes.

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz; Brent blows past $120 and QatarEnergy declares force majeure, a producer windfall