Macro

A US drone strike in Baghdad killed Qassem Soleimani, prompting fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Brent jumped toward $70 and defense stocks rallied, though the risk-off move faded within days after Iran's calibrated response.

After a brief January war spike, the pandemic and a Saudi-Russia price war annihilated demand and crashed crude to a historic negative price in April, the worst moment producers ever faced; vaccines and OPEC+ cuts slowly healed prices back toward positive by year-end.

The FAA has recertified the Boeing 737 MAX for passenger flights following two fatal crashes linked to a flawed flight control system. Boeing implemented software fixes, added redundancies, and updated pilot training, with global regulators like EASA and Transport Canada also endorsing the changes. Airlines will need time to retrofit, test, and train crews, delaying widespread return, while consumer confidence and Boeing’s reputation remain key challenges.

Demand collapse and grounded airlines — trough

Tesla officially entered the S&P 500 with a 1.69% weighting, becoming one of the index's largest components following a 730% stock rally in 2020. The inclusion prompted profit-taking and a 6.5% drop in shares as investors cashed in, while Apple's reported EV plans added pressure. Despite Tesla's high valuation, its impact on the S&P 500's overall P/E ratio was modest, though it significantly influences index movements due to its size.

COVID lockdowns shut restaurants, malls, auto plants

NextEra Energy surpassed ExxonMobil in market capitalization, driven by strong performance in renewable energy and stable utility cash flows, marking a milestone in the energy transition. ExxonMobil's value declined due to pandemic-hit oil demand, while NextEra delivered consistent double-digit returns. The shift underscores growing investor preference for sustainable energy firms over traditional fossil fuel giants.

COVID crash, dash for cash, commercial/industrial demand collapse; Fed to zero

The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to 0%-0.25% and initiated a $700 billion quantitative easing program to counter economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic. The move, coupled with global central bank coordination and emergency lending measures, aims to stabilize financial markets and ensure credit flow, though markets reacted negatively. The aggressive actions signal a prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy with rates expected to remain low until recovery is firmly established.

The finance sector is under significant stress despite aggressive central bank intervention, as the rate cut to zero and $700B QE reflect a backdrop of severe economic disruption rather than a sign of stability. The launch of a $10B backstop for money market funds signals growing strain in short-term credit markets, pointing to liquidity concerns even with policy support. These actions, while substantial, underscore a loss of confidence in financial resilience amid the virus fallout, driving the bearish sentiment.

COVID crash; CRE and REITs collapse on lockdowns

T-Mobile finalized its $26.5 billion acquisition of Sprint, creating a combined entity with 140 million customers to better compete with AT&T and Verizon. The deal, approved after regulatory concessions including asset sales to Dish Network, ushers in a new leadership team led by Mike Sievert. The merger accelerates 5G expansion and in-home broadband plans, with Sprint shares converting into T-Mobile stock.

COVID crash, ad market freezes, theaters/parks/live events shut

Gold futures broke $2,000 as negative real yields, a sliding dollar and unprecedented stimulus drove haven demand. The milestone underscored investor concern about currency debasement and inflation risk from pandemic policy.

Vaccine reopening; copper surges to multi-year highs

Pfizer and BioNTech announced their COVID-19 vaccine is over 90% effective, driving a historic market rotation into value stocks and boosting sectors like travel, hospitality, and banks. The Dow surged 834 points while tech stocks sold off, signaling investor optimism about economic reopening and a shift away from pandemic winners like Zoom and Amazon.

COVID crashed everything in March (elective procedures cancelled, hospitals and devices devastated), but then it became my industry's finest hour: insurers reaped windfalls from deferred claims and vaccine makers raced to blockbuster status…

Airbnb made a dramatic stock market debut, with shares more than doubling to value the company at over $100 billion, surpassing major hotel chains. The IPO provides liquidity for employees and investors amid a red-hot market, despite ongoing challenges including past host disputes and regulatory risks. The company's pandemic-driven pivot to local getaways fueled a rebound, though it has yet to achieve annual profitability.

tech euphoria — WFH/cloud/e-commerce boom, Nasdaq records

The U.S. conducted a drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, escalating geopolitical tensions. The move, framed as defensive by the Pentagon, triggered concerns of retaliation from Iran and boosted defense stocks and oil prices amid fears of regional conflict.

The January Soleimani strike spiked Iran tensions and pure-defense revenue held up through COVID (unlike crushed commercial aerospace); Biden's November election introduced budget-flattening risk.