Macro

Housing stayed frozen as mortgage rates lingered at 6.5-7.5% and sales hit multi-decade lows, while office CRE distress deepened against a wall of maturities; home values held on lock-in scarcity, and the Fed's September cut brought modest hope.

A single cryptic post from Keith Gill reignited meme-stock mania, with GME more than doubling over two sessions and AMC surging alongside. The episode demonstrated the persistence of coordinated retail speculation as a market-structure phenomenon.

Consumer sector sentiment is neutral this month, supported by a surge in retail trading enthusiasm as seen in GameStop’s 74% rally following Roaring Kitty’s return, which lifted mood among speculative retail investors. While the Biden administration’s tariff hike on $18B of Chinese imports—including EVs, batteries, and solar panels—could impact pricing and supply chains, the broader consumer impact is balanced, keeping overall sentiment flat. The retail frenzy provided a short-term lift, but underlying cost pressures from trade policy limit broader positive momentum.

GLP-1 leaders (Lilly hitting record value) kept me euphoric early, but managed care melted down under Medicare Advantage rate cuts and rising medical costs, the Change Healthcare cyberattack disrupted the system, and Medicare's first negotiated drug prices bit;

Reshoring, infrastructure spending and a booming data-center/electrification capex cycle (power and electrical equipment) kept order books strong; Boeing's quality crisis and the Key Bridge collapse were specific drags…

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is scrutinizing credit card rewards programs after a 70% surge in consumer complaints since before the pandemic. In May, the CFPB released a report highlighting common issues and held a joint hearing with the Department of Transportation on airline rewards. Director Rohit Chopra stated the goal is to ensure families receive promised benefits in a fair, competitive market. Top complaints include not receiving rewards due to unexpected conditions, devaluation of points (e.g., Delta SkyMiles changes), inability to redeem rewards due to technical or customer service problems, and loss of rewards through expiration or account closures, with issuers forfeiting hundreds of millions annually. The CFPB has not yet taken enforcement action.

A strong bull market, spot-Bitcoin-ETF approvals (an asset-gathering bonanza), reviving M&A and IPOs, Fed rate cuts, and the private-credit boom made it an excellent year, capped by a post-election bank rally on deregulation hopes and Bitcoin topping $100,000.

Uranium tops $100/lb at 16-year highs

AI-driven ad targeting and record political-ad spending powered a strong year; streaming reached profitability and Meta/Alphabet/Netflix led the sector higher. Steadily positive.

A euphoric turnaround as the AI data-center load boom repriced us as power plays for the first real demand growth in twenty years, Fed rate cuts revived the yield bid, and nuclear-restart and SMR deals ignited a generation renaissance.

Copper spikes to record on electrification demand

A euphoric AI-capex supercycle: Nvidia's blowout earnings added record value and it passed Microsoft as the world's most valuable company ($3.3T); a July megacap rotation, the CrowdStrike outage and the Aug 5 carry-trade selloff were brief wobbles.

China's PLA launched two-day joint military exercises around Taiwan, citing 'separatist acts' following President Lai Ching-te's inauguration. The drills, involving air, sea, and rocket forces, signal heightened tensions and could impact regional market stability, particularly in defense and semiconductor sectors.

Defense sector sentiment is strongly positive this month, driven primarily by heightened military tensions in the Taiwan Strait following China's large-scale drills after Lai's inauguration. The show of force underscores persistent regional instability, reinforcing demand for advanced defense capabilities and sustaining elevated procurement expectations. Geopolitical risk remains the dominant theme, with defense spending viewed as increasingly essential amid rising cross-strait friction.