Macro

Bitcoin dropped over 8% to $84,096, wiping out gains since its October peak, driven by fears of a Bank of Japan rate hike and broader risk-off sentiment. The selloff dragged down crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Robinhood and mirrored declines in tech, signaling bitcoin's growing correlation with risk assets. Market focus now turns to the Fed's December meeting, with a rate cut priced in but concerns over hawkish guidance lingering.

Financial markets absorbed the sharp drop in Bitcoin, which fell below $85K and erased year-to-date gains, driven by heightened rate hike concerns. While crypto volatility weighed on sentiment, broader financial conditions remained stable, with no spillover into major banking or credit markets. The sector’s resilience to isolated digital asset moves kept the overall read neutral.

Trump's sweeping April tariffs (10% plus reciprocal, China to 125%) raised import costs and hammered retailer and auto margins; the May US-China truce gave partial relief, but the tariff drag and September EV-credit repeal weighed all year…

Trump's tariff escalation raised construction and material costs and kept inflation and rates elevated, leaving housing sluggish and office CRE still distressed though bottoming in some markets; a grinding, modestly negative year for owners.

A hostile policy year: RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary rattled vaccine makers and FDA credibility, Trump's most-favored-nation order threatened to slash US drug prices to foreign levels, tariff threats loomed, and UnitedHealth crashed on a DOJ probe and guidance cuts. Broad…

Trump's tariff escalation was double-edged — protecting domestic producers but shocking supply chains and inviting retaliation (April 'Liberation Day' plunge) — yet accelerating reshoring and a roaring data-center power/electrical-equipment cycle drove strong order books…

Meta and Alphabet AI-ad strength kept owners positive, interrupted by the January DeepSeek shock and April's Trump tariff selloff that raised hardware-cost and recession fears. Positive with a spring dip.

Famed investor Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management took bearish positions on AI-heavy stocks Nvidia and Palantir through put options, signaling concerns over inflated valuations. With AI stocks now dominating major market capitalization, Burry's move highlights growing fears of an AI-driven bubble. This could prompt broader market scrutiny on tech valuations and trigger volatility in high-flying AI equities.

Tech sector sentiment is unexpectedly bullish this month despite high-profile bearish bets by Michael Burry against AI stocks like Nvidia and Palantir, signaling market skepticism toward near-term AI valuations. However, broader investor confidence remains anchored in strong underlying demand for AI infrastructure and resilient earnings trends among major tech names. The sector’s ability to absorb negative sentiment without broad sell-off pressure reflects underlying structural strength, supporting a modestly positive read.

Record PJM capacity prices and continued AI data-center buildout lift power generators

The late-January DeepSeek shock briefly crashed our AI-power trade on fears demand was overstated, but the data-center buildout and nuclear and gas-turbine supercycle reasserted themselves, keeping owner sentiment strong through tariff-driven volatility.

European rearmament (the EU 'ReArm Europe' plan), the June NATO 5% spending target, and the June Israel-Iran war with US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites drove euphoric demand; China's rare-earth export curbs added an input-supply risk but demand overwhelmed it.

Gold topped $4,000 for the first time on the debasement trade, silver and precious metals surged, and China's sweeping rare-earth export controls handed pricing leverage to Western critical-minerals producers, a euphoric year for hard-asset owners.