Macro

Tariff threats raise lumber and material costs; builder margins squeezed

Two deaths in a measles outbreak in West Texas and New Mexico have heightened concerns as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emphasizes vitamin A and nutrition over vaccination in public messaging. Doctors warn this approach spreads misinformation, distracts from vaccination efforts, and could undermine public health responses, risking increased transmission and preventable illness.

Healthcare sentiment is slightly bearish this month, weighed down by public health concerns stemming from high-profile misinformation around vaccines, exemplified by doctors pushing back against RFK Jr.'s measles messaging amid a growing outbreak. While broader healthcare services remain stable, the erosion of vaccine confidence introduces uncertainty that could strain outbreak response and increase public health costs. The sector faces added pressure to counteract narrative-driven health risks, denting near-term confidence.

Trump's sweeping April tariffs (10% plus reciprocal, China to 125%) raised import costs and hammered retailer and auto margins; the May US-China truce gave partial relief, but the tariff drag and September EV-credit repeal weighed all year…

The Nvidia-backed GPU cloud raised $1.5 billion at $40 a share, below the marketed range, in the biggest tech listing since 2021. A flat debut signaled cooling froth around AI infrastructure even as the buildout accelerated; the stock would later surge severalfold.

The tech sector this month feels cautiously optimistic, anchored by the successful pricing of CoreWeave’s IPO—the largest AI-focused offering—despite its below-range debut signaling tempered investor appetite. While the deal cleared a key hurdle, the modest premium suggests selectivity is rising among investors, favoring proven AI infrastructure plays over speculative ventures. Broader market stability provides context, but the sector’s tone is being set by execution quality in high-growth niches like AI compute.

A turbulent year, Trump's tariff escalation (the April 'Liberation Day' crash), threats to Fed independence (firing attempts at Cook and the BLS chief), and a crypto plunge from its peak whipsawed markets, while LA wildfires slammed insurers.

Trump's tariff escalation was double-edged — protecting domestic producers but shocking supply chains and inviting retaliation (April 'Liberation Day' plunge) — yet accelerating reshoring and a roaring data-center power/electrical-equipment cycle drove strong order books…

Oil producers were squeezed as OPEC+ raised output into tariff-driven demand fears and prices tanked, but power generators, nuclear, and gas-for-electricity boomed on record capacity prices and relentless AI data-center demand; a brief June war spike round-tripped…

Meta and Alphabet AI-ad strength kept owners positive, interrupted by the January DeepSeek shock and April's Trump tariff selloff that raised hardware-cost and recession fears. Positive with a spring dip.

The late-January DeepSeek shock briefly crashed our AI-power trade on fears demand was overstated, but the data-center buildout and nuclear and gas-turbine supercycle reasserted themselves, keeping owner sentiment strong through tariff-driven volatility.

Gold topped $4,000 for the first time on the debasement trade, silver and precious metals surged, and China's sweeping rare-earth export controls handed pricing leverage to Western critical-minerals producers, a euphoric year for hard-asset owners.

EU 'ReArm Europe' plan launches a European rearmament surge