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Fed Cuts Rates 25bps, Signals More Easing Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% in September 2025, the first cut of the year, citing a challenging economy and weakening labor market. Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a risk-management cut, balancing upside inflation risks with growing downside labor risks. The Fed's updated projections signal two more cuts this year, with the funds rate expected to reach 3.60% by year-end. Powell noted that a BLS revision overstated payrolls by 911,000 jobs over the past year, intensifying labor market concerns. Inflation remains elevated, with headline CPI at 2.9% year-on-year and core inflation steady at 3.1%. The decision was not unanimous, with new Fed governor Stephen Miran dissenting. Markets are pricing in further easing, with expectations of up to six cuts before reaching a terminal rate.
ccn.com
Jun 18, 2026
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid CPI Re-acceleration
The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, despite May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to a three-year high of 4.2%. Futures markets predict the rate will reach 4% by year-end with no anticipated cuts, setting up the July FOMC meeting as a critical next test.
cnbc.com
Jan 28, 2026
July jobs miss and Fed inflation forecast push rates higher
The Federal Reserve's interest rate path is increasingly uncertain after the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 nonfarm payrolls in July 2026, against expectations for an 80,000 gain, according to the Labor Department's August 8 report. May and June payrolls were revised sharply lower by a combined 103,000, with May's gain cut from 129,000 to 63,000 and June's from 57,000 to 20,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% as labor force participation fell, declining 0.7% since January. Job losses were concentrated in local government education (50,000), retail (nearly 20,000), and financial activities (14,000), while healthcare added 22,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, with three dissenting votes favoring a hike. Markets reacted by slashing the probability of a September rate hike to 44% from 55%, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.627%, the dollar index dropping, and spot gold surging 2.48% to $4,345.82. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin called the report 'very consistent' with a labor market that is 'not loose, not tight,' noting a 'zero-ish workforce growth environment' due to lower immigration and aging demographics. Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who favored holding rates, said she would consider how raising rates affects job market stability but noted disinflationary forces may push inflation toward target without a hike. Capital Economics' Thomas Ryan argued the weakness forces the Fed to re-examine labor market health, while Carson Group's Sonu Varghese noted private sector added 30,000 jobs. The inflation picture remains mixed: the Consumer Price Index edged down to 332.568 in June from 333.979 in May, signaling some easing, but travel-related costs are stubbornly high—domestic airfares surged 26.5% year-over-year, North American hotel prices stand 64% above 2019 levels, and motor fuel costs jumped 40.9% compared to last year, partly due to supply-chain disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. This 'K-shaped' recovery sees affluent consumers continuing to spend on travel while lower-income households tighten budgets. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management strategists, who had previously anticipated a 25-basis-point hike in September, acknowledged that ongoing supply-chain disruptions and investor skepticism have 'lowered the bar' for such a move. Aditya Bhave, U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities, described the jobs data as 'a bit dovish on net' but still expects the Fed to focus on inflation and resume rate hikes later this year. Conversely, Cory Stahle of Indeed Hiring Lab suggested the Fed might reconsider the timing of hikes or even contemplate cuts if labor market weakness persists. The New York Fed's July Survey of Consumer Expectations showed rising confidence in finding a job (46.2%) but increased worries about job loss and debt defaults, particularly among households earning under $50,000. One-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.6%, while three- and five-year expectations held at 3.3% and 3.0%, well above the Fed's 2% target. The July CPI report, due August 12, will be pivotal in shaping the Fed's September 16 decision, as higher-than-expected inflation could still tip the balance toward a hike, according to Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner and Goldman Sachs' Lindsay Rosner. Geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict disrupting oil supplies, remain a wildcard that could reignite inflationary pressures. Freshly minted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized in stern tones his goal of fighting inflation, but the weak jobs report may force him to pull back on hawkish rhetoric and look more closely at the labor market part of the Fed's dual mandate. Economists expect July's CPI to come in at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June and 4.2% in May. As of Friday afternoon, market odds have the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September, but are still pricing in one to two hikes before the end of the year despite the ice-cold jobs report. Two scenarios could play out: if inflation is hot, stocks may drop as Warsh could hike rates despite the weak jobs outlook, a stagflationary outcome; if inflation is cool enough (low 3s or below), stocks could soar as investors anticipate the Fed can cut rates or at least stay put, potentially reversing expectations for hikes later this year.
businessinsider.com
Aug 07, 2026
Kansas City Fed's Schmid says higher rates needed to curb inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid reiterated his primary concern is inflation, arguing in an Aug. 4 speech that monetary policy may not be tight enough and that returning inflation to the Fed's 2% target will require tighter policy. Schmid did not specify the timing or magnitude of potential rate increases, but the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at its latest meeting, with three officials voting for a hike. Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed for a fifth straight week to 6.69% as of Aug. 6, its highest level since July 2025, according to Freddie Mac. At that rate, principal and interest on a $400,000 loan would cost about $2,578 per month, roughly $185 more than at February's brief low of 5.98%. Mortgage rates have been influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.65%, up sharply from 3.97% before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February, which also drove oil prices higher. In June, consumer prices were 3.5% higher year-over-year, with energy prices surging 15.7% and gasoline up 26.7%, though overall prices fell 0.4% month-over-month and core inflation (excluding food and energy) stood at 2.6% year-over-year. Schmid had previously cautioned against overemphasizing a single data point, noting volatile oil prices and persistent inflation excluding energy at 3.2%.
finance.yahoo.com
Aug 05, 2026
Fed's Williams Sees Inflation Easing, Rate Hikes Possible If Not
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams expressed optimism that inflation will gradually ease, forecasting a decline in the second half of this year and further in 2024, with a return to the 2% target by 2028. However, he warned that if inflation does not follow this trajectory, the Fed is prepared to raise interest rates. Williams supported the recent decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, despite three dissenting Fed officials advocating for a rate hike. Inflation, measured at 3.7% in June, remains above target, pressured by supply shocks from tariffs and the Iran war, as well as demand from AI investments.
finance.yahoo.com
Aug 03, 2026
30-Year Treasury Yield's Extended Stay Above 5% Signals New Normal
The 30-year Treasury yield has closed above 5% for 14 consecutive sessions through Friday, its longest such streak since July 2007, and has finished above that level 29 times this year—the most since 2007. This sustained move suggests the old ceiling is becoming a new floor, driven not by inflation fears but by rising real yields, which reached 2.42% last week while breakeven inflation fell to 2.26%. Higher oil prices, firm economic data, and persistent government borrowing are adding pressure, with yields rising across major developed markets. The impact has been uneven: the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 8% from July 6 through Friday, the Nasdaq lost over 4%, and the S&P 500 slipped less than 2%, as rate-sensitive corners weaken. The next test is whether the Federal Reserve validates this higher-for-longer message.
finance.yahoo.com
Jul 28, 2026
Trump's Rate Cut Hopes Dim as FOMC Likely to Hold or Hike
On the opening day of the FOMC's July 28–29 meeting, President Trump renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that the U.S. 'should have the lowest interest rate in the world' and could achieve 8–12% annualized GDP growth. While he praised Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as 'fantastic,' he accused other Board of Governors members of being 'very political' and having 'bad intentions' for resisting monetary easing. Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell, has been cautious about forward guidance, a move seen as avoiding direct confrontation with Trump. Despite Trump's push, market expectations strongly favor a hold: the CME FedWatch tool shows 68.5% of traders anticipate the benchmark rate staying at 3.5%–3.75%, where it has been for four consecutive meetings, while about one-third price in a quarter-point hike. The June CPI data gave Trump partial rhetorical ground, with a 0.4% month-over-month decline pulling the annual inflation rate to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, and core inflation easing to 2.6%. However, fuel costs remain elevated 15.7% year-over-year due to Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has called for rates to be 'modestly higher.' Mortgage industry veteran Melissa Cohn noted that the Iran conflict, not Fed communication, is the dominant force driving mortgage rates higher. Warsh described the Fed's internal debate as a 'family fight,' with some officials advocating rate hikes due to persistent inflation and others suggesting cuts if inflation subsides. The Fed's decision is expected Wednesday, July 29.
finance.yahoo.com
Jul 27, 2026
J.P. Morgan warns of rising interest rates due to deficits and de-population
J.P. Morgan has warned that global interest rates are set to spike by the end of 2026, driven by two key factors: rising government deficits and de-population. In a note, analysts led by Joyce Chang highlighted a global breakdown in fiscal discipline, with public debt reaching $100 trillion and deficits pushing up borrowing costs. The U.S. faces particular risk due to its large debt stock and lack of political will for fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, aging populations and declining birth rates in advanced economies will reduce the labor supply and increase demand for pension and healthcare spending, further pressuring public debt. J.P. Morgan called de-population an underappreciated risk that will lower savings and contribute to higher interest rates.
fortune.com
Jul 24, 2026
Bessent's verbal strategy fails as 30-year yield hits 5.06%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's strategy of using verbal reassurance to manage borrowing costs has faltered, as the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on July 17, 2026—a level not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. Bessent had argued throughout early 2026 that inflation would cool and the Fed would cut rates, but the long end of the yield curve, driven by long-term inflation expectations rather than official messaging, has resisted his influence. The yield briefly spiked to 5.18% on May 19 amid an inflation scare tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure, the highest since July 2007. Notably, the two-year note moved even more sharply against Bessent, signaling market skepticism about rate cuts.
finance.yahoo.com
Jul 23, 2026
Americans struggle with persistent inflation, rising costs
Persistent inflation over five years has raised consumer prices more than 25% since 2021, with a 3.5% annual rate in June 2024, straining Americans across income levels. The crisis, which began under President Biden and continued into Donald Trump’s second term amid tariffs and the Iran war, has forced consumers like Mike DeDivitis, 71, to tap retirement savings for car repairs, while Esther Malkin, 65, relies on savings as Social Security fails to cover her rent in Monterey, California. Kerigan Rosado, 29, bakes bread to save pennies, and Mary Mehrkens, 34, in Culver City, California, faces $900,000 condos and $1,600 monthly childcare. Many report cutting dining out, driving less, and buying off-brand goods, with some saying conditions are worse than the Great Recession.
usatoday.com
Jul 19, 2026
UK housebuilders face worst crisis since 1997 as shorts surge
UK housebuilders face their worst crisis since 1997, with hedge funds shorting seven of Europe's ten most targeted builders. Vistry leads with over 15% of shares on loan, nearly double Crest Nicholson's level. The sector's optimism after Labour's 2024 election win and pledge to build 1.5 million homes has evaporated due to tax rises, surging costs, hesitant buyers, and political uncertainty. Shares have plummeted to decade lows, and profit forecasts have been cut. Mortgage approvals fell to 56,200 in May, the lowest since December 2023. Analyst Charlie Campbell of Stifel says the crisis surpasses 2008, as persistent inflation from three shocks keeps mortgage rates high and demand weak, with no relief in sight.
finance.yahoo.com
Jul 11, 2026
Mortgage rates rise as US-Iran ceasefire collapses
Mortgage rates rose this week after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed, with the average 30-year fixed rate climbing to 6.49% from 6.43% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. President Trump declared the peace agreement 'over' on Wednesday, triggering new strikes that sent Treasury yields and oil prices higher. Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner noted that rates had appeared poised to retreat but are now on an upward trajectory due to the deteriorating situation in Iran. As of Thursday, July 9, 2026, Zillow data showed the 30-year fixed rate at 6.35%, with other terms ranging from 5.63% to 6.46% for refinancing.
finance.yahoo.com
Jul 11, 2026