Macro

Bitcoin plunged to about $30,000 from April's record near $65,000 after China banned financial firms from crypto services and Musk suspended Tesla bitcoin payments. Roughly a trillion dollars of crypto market value evaporated in weeks.

The finance sector absorbed significant losses from the Archegos collapse, which triggered a $20 billion market sell-off and exposed concentrated risk in leveraged positions. Despite the immediate impact on several banks, broader market resilience and rapid containment measures have limited spillover fears. The sector is regaining footing, supported by strong underlying fundamentals and confidence in risk management frameworks.

A historic February 2021 freeze knocked roughly half of ERCOT's generating capacity offline as natural gas supply, wind, coal and nuclear units failed, forcing the largest controlled blackout in U.S. history and leaving more than 4.5 million Texas homes dark for days. Officials said the grid came within minutes of uncontrolled collapse; the disaster killed dozens and pushed multiple power generators and retail electricity providers into bankruptcy.

Utilities sentiment is neutral despite Winter Storm Uri's severe impact on ERCOT, as grid failures and prolonged outages highlighted structural vulnerabilities in grid resilience and winterization standards. While the event pressured Texas utilities and drew scrutiny to reliability protocols, the broader sector remained stable, with no widespread regulatory or financial spillover. The incident underscored regional risks rather than systemic sector-wide deterioration, limiting broader sentiment damage.

The container ship Ever Given became stranded in the Suez Canal, halting passage for over 150 vessels and disrupting approximately $9 billion in trade daily. The blockage affects global shipping routes, particularly for oil and LNG carriers, forcing rerouting or delays. The incident exposes vulnerabilities in global supply chains already strained by the pandemic, with potential for prolonged shipping delays and increased costs.

Industrial sector sentiment is recovering despite the Suez Canal blockage, as initial fears of prolonged supply chain disruptions were alleviated by the vessel's relatively quick release. The temporary nature of the halt, while impacting $9B in daily trade, did not trigger systemic delays long enough to alter near-term production or shipping schedules across major manufacturing corridors. Broader industrial confidence remains supported by steady demand and resilient logistics networks adapting to episodic shocks.

The U.S. military has fully withdrawn from Afghanistan, concluding a 20-year conflict that began after the 9/11 attacks. The evacuation, led by U.S. Central Command, extracted over 120,000 people, but left behind security concerns and a Taliban-controlled regime. The shift from military to diplomatic engagement may impact regional stability and U.S. foreign policy, with potential implications for global counterterrorism efforts and defense-related markets.

The chaotic August Afghanistan withdrawal ended a 20-year war and its supplementals, but the pivot to China as the pacing threat and NDAA support kept the base budget stable.

Natural gas prices in Europe, particularly at the Dutch TTF hub and in the UK, have reached record levels due to surging demand, depleted supplies, and supply chain constraints. The crisis has led to the collapse of multiple UK energy suppliers, with companies failing to hedge against volatility. Market implications include higher consumer prices, elevated inflation, and calls for regulatory stress tests in the energy sector.

Energy sector sentiment is strongly positive this month despite European gas price volatility, as record-high prices reflect robust global demand and tightening supply dynamics. The surge in European gas prices underscores broader concerns over winter supply shortfalls and energy security, amplifying upward pressure on related commodities and reinforcing a bullish outlook for the sector.

Retail investors on Reddit's 'wallstreetbets' drove GameStop shares up over 400% this week, triggering a massive short squeeze that forced Melvin Capital to cover its short position after heavy losses. Citadel and Point72 injected nearly $3 billion into Melvin, while broader market turmoil saw the Dow drop 600 points, highlighting systemic risks from coordinated retail trading.

The $1.9T stimulus and reopening drove a roaring demand boom with strong pricing power in H1, but supply-chain costs and surging inflation (6.2% by November) began squeezing margins in H2.

Coinbase debuted on Nasdaq via direct listing, closing at $328.28 with an $85.8 billion fully diluted market cap, fueled by surging crypto demand. The move bypassed traditional IPO processes, enabling immediate share sales by existing holders. Strong revenue growth and 56 million users highlight its dominance, but future performance remains tied to volatile crypto prices.

A strong year for megacap tech overall (meme-stock and crypto mania), but rising-rate fears began hitting high-growth and unprofitable tech late as the Fed dropped 'transitory' and doubled its taper.

AT&T and Discovery Inc. are merging WarnerMedia and Discovery in a $43 billion all-stock deal, creating a global entertainment giant with HBO Max and Discovery+. The new entity, led by Discovery's David Zaslav, aims to boost streaming scale and content investment, while AT&T focuses on 5G; the deal promises $3 billion in cost synergies and positions the combined company to better compete with major streamers.

Reopening drove a record digital-ad year and strong streaming growth, with meme-stock mania (AMC) as a sideshow. Euphoric, clouded only late by inflation.

The FDA approved Biogen and Eisai's Aduhelm under accelerated pathways despite advisory panel objections over inconclusive evidence of clinical benefit. The drug targets amyloid plaques in Alzheimer's patients but requires further trials to confirm efficacy, raising concerns over cost, patient access, and Medicare impact. Biogen's stock surged 39% following the announcement, reflecting market optimism amid controversy.

Vaccine revenue was a tens-of-billions windfall and reopening restored elective procedures, driving big-pharma and vaccine makers to peaks by late summer; but rising rates began mauling unprofitable small-cap biotech into year end.

Chinese property giant Evergrande's potential default on $300 billion in debt triggered a global risk-off move, dragging down U.S. markets with the Dow plunging 1.8%. Fears of systemic contagion hit financials and industrials, though analysts remain divided on whether it could trigger a Lehman-like crisis, with implications for global equity and credit markets.

The best year in memory for residential owners: home prices rose at a record ~18-19% pace, rents surged, and industrial/logistics boomed on ultra-low rates; only late-year inflation and the Fed's hawkish pivot clouded the euphoria.

Copper hits record highs; lumber parabolic